Last week I attended the annual National Association of Realtors (NAR) convention in beautiful San Diego.  One of the sessions that received the most attention and precipitated some controversial discussion was the forum with NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  In this session Mr. Yun projected “real estate prices would climb between 3%-5% in 2010, while the number of home sales will increase 15%.”

Following Mr. Yun’s prediction, many blogs and newspapers have published a taunting series of attacks on this very optimistic forecast. Blogs and their contributors such as Boston.com have questioned such a sunny prediction for 2010’s real estate market.

Although Ventura County’s real estate market has demonstrated some positive changes in the past few months, it is hard to envision a significant rise in real estate when unemployment is predicted to reach 11% in 2010 (source: NAR).   As I have mentioned in my previous posts, our economy and the housing market will not recover unless there are more jobs created.  Jobs provide income and income is the primary means to fulfill those monthly payments called mortgage!!

For our economy’s sake I do hope Lawrence Yun’s predictions are accurate. However, there is hopeful wishing and then there is reality.

Do you see a light at the end of our economic tunnel? If so, what are the positive signs that guide you?  If not, what is your economic barameter?  Either way, please feel free to comment below.  Ventura County Real Estate Talk would love to read what you have to say on this issue.

Thank you.